The mathematics of natural catastrophes

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This included ideas of cost versus function with engineering i. My students were eager to learn how to help when disasters occur. They enjoyed learning about the importance of planning and the consequences of poor planning. One of my teaching goals is to connect science and social concepts to promote geo-literacy. I strive to empower my students to become decision-makers by the knowledge acquired through lessons. For example, I take science concepts such as how humans change the environment and link it to Ten on Tuesday , a concept that if each citizen picks up ten pieces of trash on Tuesday, cities can reduce the amount of litter.

My students are so excited about helping the environment that they voluntarily spend part of their recess time on Tuesdays picking up trash. After giving a lesson on a topic, a teacher can write on the whiteboard three columns of words: local, regional, and global, and lead a discussion on these that relate to the lesson.

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The repetition of these words over time will encourage students to relate future concepts on all three levels. She is passionate about getting her students to think locally and globally and care about the planet. This year her class participated in the Global Monster Project. Do you know a great educator who teaches about our world?


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The Educator of the Week series features inspiring activities and lessons that educators are implementing with their students that connect them to the world in bold and exciting ways. There are places prone to earthquakes. Several earth structures have formed areas that produce more earthquakes which are medium to large earthquakes. The impact can be lethal. The most dangerous areas are located at plate boundary. Like Like. Our teaching resources for natural disasters include printables, activities, and references on hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis.

Teach your students the science behind these geological and meteorological events with the diverse resources below. You are commenting using your WordPress. You are commenting using your Google account.

6 ways supercomputers help prevent natural hazards from becoming natural disasters

You are commenting using your Twitter account. You are commenting using your Facebook account. Notify me of new comments via email. Notify me of new posts via email. Provided by : KatRisk. KatRisk is a catastrophe modelling company focused on flood and wind risk. They develop event based probabilistic models to quantify portfolio aggregate losses and exceedience probability curves.

Their aim is to develop models that fully correlate all sources of flood loss including explicit consideration of tropical cyclone rainfall and storm surge.

To initiate this development, they have built track sets and wind models for Atlantic Basin hurricanes and Northwest Pacific Typhoons. Free demonstration versions of these models are available online. RMS models risk in nearly countries, allowing insurers, reinsurers, and other stakeholders to analyse the probability of loss from catastrophic events. Their models are built using detailed data reflecting localized variations in hazard, and databases capturing property and human exposures. RiskScape provides a modular framework to estimate impacts and losses for assets exposed to natural hazards.

The software combines hazard, asset and vulnerability modules through a data selection process to quantify a range of economic and social consequences.


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  • This approach helps practitioners make informed decisions on natural hazard management activities. RiskScape tools enable users to build their own hazard and asset modules, then import these for impact and loss modelling.

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    User developed modules can be used independently or in combination with RiskScape provided modules. A planned vulnerability module builder will enable users to be completely self-sufficient in module development. Although designed for New Zealand, RiskScape is easily adapted for use anywhere in the world. EQECAT's catastrophe risk models incorporate scientific research, deep engineering knowledge, claims and exposure data, combined with advanced mathematics and statistics to produce catastrophe risk.

    Provided by : Deltares. Deltares assesses flood risks by carrying out integrated risk analyses looking into both the probability and impact of flooding. They estimate flood probability by confronting water levels and waves with the height and strength of levees. Deltares maps the vulnerability of an area in case of flooding and studies the effects of climate change and spatial planning on flood risk. They also assess economic damage, possible casualties and environmental impacts of floods. Geoscience Australia's Tropical Cyclone Risk Model TCRM is a statistical and parametric model of tropical cyclone behaviour, designed to simulate the impact of one or many tropical cyclone events.

    It can be used to simulate many thousands of years of activity to determine the annual exceedance probability of cyclonic winds, or alternatively to examine the impact of a single event on a community. TCRM has been designed to allow hazard researchers to examine the range of sensitivity to the many parameterised tropical cyclone models in use around the world. It is an open-source software application, envisaged to serve as a standard for comparison to other tropical cyclone hazard models. Provided by : Verisk Maplecroft. The Atlas includes sub-national mapping of each index allowing the identification of natural hazards risks down to local levels, enabling risk managers to pinpoint risks to individual assets such as factories, refineries or pipelines.


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    • It provides a country scorecards providing a summary of the major natural hazards exposure of each country and enable the easy comparison of risks. In addition, Verisk Maplecroft has also analysed the potential for economic disruption from natural hazards, by compiling a sub-national map of economic exposure to the 12 natural hazards featured in the Atlas. Index views compare this risk across all countries to consider the absolute economic values exposed to natural hazards and also how this exposure compares to a country's total economic output.

      Verisk Maplecroft has also designed a Socio-economic Resilience Index which assesses the factors that combine to increase the chance that occurrences of natural hazards will become major natural disasters. The WorldRiskIndex calculates the risk of becoming the victim of a disaster resulting from an extreme natural event for countries.

      It is a tool used to assess and estimate the disaster risk of a country and aims to demonstrate that not only the magnitude or intensity of a natural event influences disaster risk, but a multitude of different factors, such as the political and institutional structures, the state of infrastructure or the nutrition situation, economic and environmental conditions of a country determine whether a natural hazard will turn into a disaster. It consists of four components: exposure, susceptibility, coping capacities and adaptive capacities.

      The Index is calculated from 28 indicators using data that is available worldwide and accessible to the public. Hazard models estimate the probability of occurrence of a specific hazard, in a specific future time period, as well as its intensity and area of impact. Natural hazard models replicate the physics of natural processes, including their propagation through the atmosphere e.

      Hazard is estimated in terms of the occurrence, frequency and severity of the event s. Source: adapted from Michel-Kerjan et al. The ANUGA hydrodynamic Inundation Model calculates the maximum water depth for the study area which is then provided as a map for use by emergency managers. An important capability of the software is that it can model the process of wetting and drying as water enters and leaves an area. This means that it is suitable for simulating water flow onto a beach or dry land and around structures such as buildings.

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      ANUGA is currently being applied in a number of projects where impacts from tsunami events on coastal communities are simulated. Provided by : Ambiental. The Ambiental flood model simulates the impact of rainfall, river and tidal water sources in complex environments, including mountainous regions and dense urban areas. It is also able to replicate flood events for cities and countries around the world, generate flood maps and flood risk data sets and assess flood defenses.

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      The Mathematics Of Natural Catastrophes - Woo Gordon - Google книги

      The model can be used to explain what might happen if flood defenses are breached or sewers overflow, and what would happen if water is pumped out of the area or cannot escape. In addition to this, the NCTR has traditionally been committed to Inundation modelling to assist coastal communities in their efforts to assess the risk, and mitigate the potential of tsunami hazard. MOST is a suite of numerical simulation codes capable of simulating three processes of tsunami evolution: earthquake, transoceanic propagation, and inundation of dry land.

      The MOST model has been extensively tested against a number of laboratory experiments and was used for simulations of historical tsunamis. Provided by : Oceanweather Inc. The CYCLOPS system provides not only highly accurate day-day forecasts but also a unique probabilistic approach to support emergency response required in the face of a cyclone typhoon, hurricane threat, such as the evacuation decision.