The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2nd Edition) (Incerto, Book 2)

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Book Description Paperback. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Blac.

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Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks , This specific ISBN edition is currently not available. View all copies of this ISBN edition:.

Synopsis About this title A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. Review : Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan , in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact.

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Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. We're still doing it. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics.

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Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation.

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Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until , when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another.

The Black Swan: Second Edition

Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. Buy New Learn more about this copy.

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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Seller Rating:. Published by Random House Trade Paperbacks Published by Penguin Random House. New Paperback Quantity Available: Seller Image. New Paperback or Softback Quantity Available: Before , Europeans believed all swans were white. Politics and Prose. Non Fiction.

The Black Swan: Second Edition

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Availability: In Stock—Click for Locations. Not Signed or Personalized. September 22, pm.

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